It is by no means certain that the gay marriage ban will be on the ballot in November. Pro-gay political forces, now including the California Governor, who had previously vetoed legislative legalization of gay marriage, might well be able to keep it off the ballot by challenging signatures or taking other legal actions.

Assuming it is on the ballot, it is by no means certain that it will pass.  My recollection is that Arizona finally broke a long streak of passed referenda in this area, and it seems to me that a huge turnout in support of Barack Obama may well overwhelm whatever the forces opposed to gay marriage can muster.

The 4-3 decision of the California Supreme Court (3-3 among the six Republican members and 1-0 among the sole Democratic member) that the equal protection principle requires the allowance of gay marriage has national and international impact. It is the first court in the nation to reach this conclusion, and I am confident it will be far from the last.

California, of course, is not just any state.  It has far more people than other other state, and many times the total population of the only state with a functioning gay marriage system, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts.

California's ending the ban on interracial marriage foreshadowed the U.S. Supreme Court's doing likewise, and the same is possible for gay marriage.

As Hillary Clinton's Presidential campaign chances fade away in an embyonic stampede of superdelegates to Barack Obama, at least some of her supporters are pursuing a Plan B, the Vice-Presidency.

http://www.voteboth.com has been formed to push her candidacy with the appealing notion that we should not settle for a candidate backed by 51% of the Democratic Party when we can get a team backed by 100%.

Those who are concerned about the Rev. Jeremiah Wright should ponder this: the candidate whose style most undermines hatreds of all kinds is Barack Obama.  That is one key reason why I and countless others enthusiastically support him.

Jeremiah Wright's outlandish statements are by no means original.  Outside the MSM, such hate filled thoughts and expressions have long permeated various black neighborhoods around the country, just as racist thoughts and expressions have long permeated various white neighborhoods around the country.

As outrages over ill-chosen words go, "Bittergate" is decidedly minor.  Obama's decision to apologize has to be based on more on a desire to avoid giving the Republicans a club to distort his views than on fear of a significant backlash in the Pennsylvania primary.

A generalization that should arose little dispute is that people vote for candidates on the basis of those issues they believe the candidates have the power to do something about.  When unions were delivering annual pay increases far in excess of inflation, plus ever-expanding healthcare and other benefits, a much smaller percentage of people doubted that pursuing pro-union policies had a major impact on their lives than do today.

I feel as sorry for the Clintons as one can feel for any couple reported to have earned $109 million in the last seven years.  They are in an impossible political position because a lot of that money is interpretable as being in the ambiguous category of influence seeking.

The least objectionable payments to the Clintons are those in which the host made a payment for a Bill Clinton speech and then made money on the speech.  (Payments for speeches by U.S. Senators and House members have been against the law for a good number of years, dramatically reducing the availability of cogent speeches by Washington insiders, and helping to create a scarcity that enriches journalists and former insiders in general as well as the Clintons.)

With polls fluctuating with Obama in an upward spiral--but still likely to fall below his eventual peak polling performances as a result of last minute Clinton attacks--the question remains whether Obama can win Pennsylvania.

Yes. He. Can.

Pennsylvania is really not one state, but many states.  Sections of Philadelphia, Harrisburg, Pittsburgh and Erie are like the District of Columbia.  Sections of Western Pennsylvania are like Ohio.  Parts of Southwestern Pennsylvania are an extension of West Virginia, while parts of Northwestern and Northeastern Pennsylvania are an extension of New York.  Much of rural Pennsylvania is similar to rural areas in Iowa and other states that Obama won.

On this morning's television talk shows, Sen. Bill Nelson of Florida and Senator Carl Levin of Michigan both agreed that mail-in ballots funded by state parties was the best solution to ending the dispute over the seating of the Florida and Michigan delegations.  Democratic National Chairman Howard Dean stopped short of endorsing it is a solution, but reacted positively to it, noting that Oregon conducts all its general elections by mail.

The cost of a mail ballot election for Florida is estimated to be $6 million.  For the less populous state of Michigan, the number should be less, although a much higher percent of Michigan's residents are likely to be American citizens registered as Democrats.

My longtime friend Marie Lederer retired from the Pennsylvania House of Representatives at the end of November, 2006.  She was a tireless worker who well understood the relationship between effort and achievement.  "We don't have magic wands," she would often say when faced with impossible demands.

But suppose Howard Dean gave every superdelegate a magic wand, a cape, and a mask, instantly transforming them into superheroes worthy of the comic strips of my youth. It would be great to see Al Gore using his magic wand to end global warming, Ted Kennedy using his to raise the minimum wage to $9.50, Nancy Pelosi using hers to end Senate filibusters of House-passed legislation, John Conyers using his to protect civil liberties tramped on in the Bush Administration, etc.

Tonight on television, I saw some discussion about the debate over the votes in Florida and Michigan. Florida and Michigan officials--acting in their role as guardian of the taxpayers--are adamant that no state money should be paid for revotes in accordance with Democratic Party rules.  Democratic Chair Howard Dean--acting in his role as the guardian of the Democratic Party treasury--is adamant that no DNC money should be paid for votes in Florida and Michigan.

I think it is important to defeating John McCain that Michigan and Florida be given a voice in the selection of a Presidential nominee.  I believe that my candidate, Barack Obama, will win the nomination whether or not Michigan or Florida have a valid vote for President, but I feel confident that his nomination will be worth much more if Michigan and Florida have a voice at the Democratic National Convention.  

Today's New York Times reported again, as has been known publicly for some time, that the Connecticut Democratic Party has stripped Senator Joe Lieberman of his status as a superdelegate because he is backing John McCain for President.  In doing so, he violates the so-called Zell Miller rule, which prevents delegates from backing opposition party candidates.

That got me thinking once more about the superdelegates, and I offer the following somewhat paradoxical prediction: the more the important superdelegates prove to be in selecting a President, the fewer the superdelegates will be in attendance.

A close race dependent on superdelegates will likely lead to the public revelation of an unbelievable number of family crises: illnesses of spouses, children, parents, aunts, and uncles; needs to take children or grandchildren to college, etc.

In 2004, I submitted my nominating petition as a delegate pledged to Howard Dean in the afternoon of the Wisconsin primary.  The next day, upon coming in third in this progressive state that gave Robert LaFollette Sr. and Robert LaFollette Jr. national influence for a sixty year period, and John Kennedy, Eugene McCarthy, and George McGovern decisive victories, Howard Dean withdrew from active campaigning but urged his delegate candidates to keep going.

I kept going and was elected delegate ten weeks later after John Kerry had clinched the Democratic nomination.  My election was a minor national news story, something on the order of the Japanese soldiers who kept fighting long after Japan had surrendered.

In the immediate aftermath of Barack Obama's South Carolina triumph, the Clinton campaign predicted victory on February 5, listing three "firewall" states: California, New Jersey, and New York.

Since then, the Zogby poll has given Obama a one point lead in California, and a one-point deficit in New Jersey.  This is big, big news.

New Jersey is especially interesting because the votes will be counted relatively early in the evening, and because it is a traditional political machine stronghold which is steadily moving in the direction of fighting corruption by electing purposeful moderates and liberals to make sure governmental power is in the hands of those who want to do important public-spirited things with it.

The first rule of Presidential primaries is advocates for candidates should not raise expectations.  But I am only a grassroots advocate.  I do not speak for the Obama campaign, and no journalist or influential blogger anywhere believes I do. I only am one of many on the Obama delegate slate in Pennsylvania, which does not vote until April 22.

In my heart of hearts, what I would like to see is the Presidential contest come down to Pennsylvania. There are six weeks or so so between the last of the March primaries and Pennsylvania's.  I would love to be giving interviews to this journalist and that, and working with campaign volunteers from around the country.  It would be great for Pennsylvania to be the center of attention, the New Hampshire primary of the late primary season, the California of the remaining states.

USA Today is running this week a fact-heavy series about the imminent retirement of the Baby Boom generation. The first two articles, available at USAToday.com in its Money section, are great on cogent advice to individuals, but are very weak on public policy implications for our country.

As one whose parents enjoyed financial security in their senior years in large part because my late father was militantly, evangelistically against retirement, I agree with the general thrust of the articles that people should delay retirement as long as possible in their own financial interest. I commend USA Today for making it clear to people that they can be losing over $100,000 in today's money by taking early retirement as most choose to do even as life expectancy continues to rise.

But I am disappointed at the sparsity of analysis of the broad public policy implications of the fact that many many millions of people prefer earlier retirement to financial security.  This choice is good for the Social Security System even if it is bad for individuals.

On Saturday morning, January 12, just as a meeting of the Pennsylvania Democratic State Committee was about to get under way at the Host Inn near Lancaster, Bob Freeman, my good friend of two and a half decades who is my fellow legislator and state committeeman, stopped by my seat to discuss the New Hampshire primary and needle me a little about my campaigning there for Barack Obama.

He tried to establish that Obama was winning until I got there, but the chronology was on my side.  I told him that Obama was by seven points when I first went to New Hampshire November 30, 2007, and then down by only six points a few days later.  When I went back there on January 5, one poll had Obama slightly trailing, but when I left on election day, January 8, Obama was leading in all the polls, and leading big in most polls.

Today is the day that  Barack Obama is virtually certain to score a decisive victory in the New Hampshire.  I flew back from New Hampshire this afternoon, and will soon be attending a victory party (7 p.m. to 11:00 p.m.) for Obama at Drinker's Tavern at 124 Market Street in Philadelphia.  Any Obama supporter in the Philadelphia area is welcome to come also.

Since the Iowa Caucuses took their current early position in 1976, no one in either party who has won both the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary has his been denied his party's nomination. Victories here produce a bonanza of publicity, campaign funds, new volunteers, and new hope, and are a serious blow to opposition candidacies.

I now blogging from the Obama headquarters in Laconia, New Hampshire.  It is   one of at least 18 headquarters in New Hampshire, and I am here as one of 25 or so (and growing) volunteers getting ready for canvassing in the Laconia area.

As I was walking into the headquarters a few minutes, I overheard a conversation of someone who had arrived a few minutes before me.  He gave his name, identified himself as one who had been working for the Clinton office down the street (the street also has an Edwards office, making it a sort of shopping mall for political activists), and said he had now switched to Obama.  The Obama guy at the desk matter of factly took down his name, put it into the computer, and asked when he could work.