The soap opera of whether the Democrats or the Republicans shall control the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, with a bare minimum of 102 out of 203 seats, continues, as Barbara McIlvaine Smith's shocking apparent upset victory from West Chester--likely the first Democrat to win the seat since the Civil War--comes under scrutiny in a retabulation of all the votes. There is a copious paper trail here, as the vast majority of the votes cast were cast on computer scan cards.
The Republicans,though,controlled the entire election machinery; it hardly seems likely that there could be any pattern of deliberate errors on behalf of the Democrat. While Republican lawyers are aggressively fighting for their clients, Republican legislators and staff have an air of resignation about them. "The Democrats won, and we lost," many are saying.
Besides the highly unlikely discovery of a new cache of Republican votes in Chester County, other things that could go wrong are disaffected Democrats either switching to the Republican Party or voting for the Republican nominee for Speaker or just not showing up to vote.
There are three reasons why any of these scenarios are unlikely : they are virtually certain to amount to political suicide for any Democrat who attempts them; they alienate the governor's office, from whence discretionary spending flows; and a good number of Republicans prefer to be in the minority in the current circumstances and hate the idea of being dependent on Democratic turncoats. Various Republicans are urging acceptance of the Democratic election victory and/or threatening to abstain themselves to guarantee the Democratic election victory in order that the Republicans have a chance once again to become a purer and more right-wing Republican party.
So it looks virtually certain that Democrat Bill DeWeese will win his first term as Speaker since 1993, and that other Democrats, including myself, will move up in the leadership hierarchy. I have won election as Majority Whip--up from Caucus Chairman, for the first time since 1993--contingent on DeWeese's election as Speaker.
Having the Democrats in control of the House means there will be Democratic chairs of all committees, and Democratic majorities on all committees. We will have a chance to force votes on popular issues where the Republicans will lose ground by voting no, or antagonize the right-wing zealots in their own party by voting with us.
Being in the majority likely means that we will retain the majority in 2008; not since the Eisenhower landslide of 1956 did the Democrats lose a House majority after one term.
So Tuesday, January 2, 2007 should be a very good day for the Democratic Party, and a very good day for the people of Pennsylvania. When Governor Rendell is sworn in for a second term at the end of January, he will have the knowledge that at least one house of the legislature is led and organized by people who very much want him to succeed.
Governor Milton Shapp (1971-1979),a highly successful cable television pioneer before ascending to the Governorship, told of the difficulties of running a state goverment compared to running a corporation. "Almost half the people in the legislature," he would complain, "are working for the opposition." But Shapp had a Democratic Senate throughout his two terms as Governor, and a Democratic House for 6 of his 8 years as Governor.
January 2, 2007 will be the first time the Democrats have gained control of either house in the Rendell Administration, and it is up to the Democrats to make the most of the situation in the public interest.