Meeting or beating expectations are now the standards for Obama and Clinton as the front-runner's mantle falls off Clinton and pundits debate whether Obama has replaced her in that role.
By winning the Iowa caucuses, Obama has gained a massive infusion of publicity and money. All the other candidates now have to deal with internal and external questions as to how long their candidacies can survive under various scenarios.
Clinton started this race as the candidate most likely to be able to hang on despite early losses due to the national constituency supplied by her successful filling of her roles as First Lady, U.S. Senator, and putative standard bearer for the interests of the advancement of women, the clear majority gender of the Democratic Party.
Clinton's durability as a candidate is now a battle of expectations. Pre-Iowa polls had her behind Obama in both New Hampshire and South Carolina, but still in contention in both states.
A victory for Clinton in either state would now be a major upset which would partially restore her to the frontrunner's position. But if Obama does significantly better than the polls suggest, the pressure on her to withdraw will increase dramatically. In the unlikely event that Obama captures a majority of the white vote in South Carolina, that could be of decisive significance.
Assuming the polls reasonably reflect what will happen in New Hampshire and Iowa, Nevada becomes the key test of the ability of Obama's momentum to overpower Clinton's long-term base of strength. Pre-Iowa polling had Clinton with a substantial lead in Nevada.
An Obama victory in Nevada following one in New Hampshire and consistent polls showing an Obama lead in South Carolina would put the question of a Clinton withdrawal on the front pages of many newspapers. The more Obama victories there are in states that were either pro-Clinton in polls or that Bill Clinton carried in the 1992 primaries, the more dubious the Clinton candidacy becomes.
My late father, Philadelphia City Councilman David Cohen, was both a critic and an admirer of tenacious candidates. They don't care if their nomination is by one one vote or if their nomination elects a Republican, he sometimes said of old line Democrats who hung tough and stayed in the race no matter what. But he himself pulled out of a mayoral race after he reluctantly concluded he could not win in order to support a candidate widely viewed as having a better chance.
The Democratic Party needs a candidate who can regain the White House. As of now, the strongest candidate for November is Barack Obama by far.
Whether that will remain true as the primary process continues will fascinating to watch. So will the internal struggles in the Clinton camp as she and her advisors try to come to grips with the messages the voters send and struggle to adjust her campaign accordingly.
Hillary Clinton's campaign is not dead and is not on life support. But the possiblity of eventually becoming Senate Majority Leader or a Senate committee chair must look far more likely to her today than it did six smonths age.