On this morning's television talk shows, Sen. Bill Nelson of Florida and Senator Carl Levin of Michigan both agreed that mail-in ballots funded by state parties was the best solution to ending the dispute over the seating of the Florida and Michigan delegations. Democratic National Chairman Howard Dean stopped short of endorsing it is a solution, but reacted positively to it, noting that Oregon conducts all its general elections by mail.
The cost of a mail ballot election for Florida is estimated to be $6 million. For the less populous state of Michigan, the number should be less, although a much higher percent of Michigan's residents are likely to be American citizens registered as Democrats.
So I would guess the total cost would be somewhere around $11 million--a big decrease from the $40 million cost I had originally estimated based on Pennsylvania figures, the $35 million maximum cost the LA Times came up with, and the $30 million or so likely cost other media sources declared for a full primary election.
Caucuses are clearly the forte of the Obama campaign, so the Obama campaign would prefer Florida and Michigan caucuses. But that preference is somewhat confused by Michigan's habit of having caucuses that have a close resemblance to primaries. And the Obama campaign is no slouch at primary elections: Obama has received more votes overall than Clinton has. Obama himself has repeatedly said he will support whatever plan the Democratic National Committee comes up with to solve this problem.
Nelson and Levin envision that their state Democratic Parties will be raising the money to pay for the primaries. I am sure they will both try to tap national sources as well as local sources, but raising $11 million in today's climate of shattered fundraising records should not be unduly difficult or impose too great a burden on the Democratic Party.
It seems likely to me that Florida and Michigan primaries would likely boost voter registration, poliitical activism and media coverage which would strengthen the Democratic nominee in November and show strong Democratic interest in winning these two states.
Given our current electoral map, it is highly unlikely that a Democrat can win without carrying Michigan, and it is also highly unlikely that a Republican can win without carrying Florida. As deep as our sense of outrage over the hardball tactics of Florida and Michigan officials might be, we have to focus on the interests of American citizens for the future.
What do you think?