In the immediate aftermath of Barack Obama's South Carolina triumph, the Clinton campaign predicted victory on February 5, listing three "firewall" states: California, New Jersey, and New York.
Since then, the Zogby poll has given Obama a one point lead in California, and a one-point deficit in New Jersey. This is big, big news.
New Jersey is especially interesting because the votes will be counted relatively early in the evening, and because it is a traditional political machine stronghold which is steadily moving in the direction of fighting corruption by electing purposeful moderates and liberals to make sure governmental power is in the hands of those who want to do important public-spirited things with it.
New Jersey is a heavily suburban state. It is full of ex-New Yorkers and ex-Philadelphians, many of whom were attracted to it as a result of Summer vactions.
New Jersey has long--since the retirement of moderate Republican Clifford Case in 1978--had Democrats in both U.S. Senate seats, something that Pennsylvania last had during the Truman Administration. New Jersey has just elected two consecutive Democratic Governors, something that Pennsylvania last did in 1958.
In addition to a Democratic governor and two Democratic U.S. Senators, Democrats control both houses of the state legislature and the vast majority of Congressional seats.
The state legislature is quite progressive, recently becoming the first state outside of New England to have civil unions. New Jersey has pioneered in becoming the first state outside Nevada to legalize casinos, the first state anywhere to pass right to know legislation for workplace chemicals, and is poised to be the first state outside of Maryland to pass the interstate compact for a National Popular Vote. As progressive legislation makes the rounds of the states, it often becomes enacted in New Jersey early in the cycle.
New Jersey is likely the most heavily Latino state on the east coast, and its black population is far higher than in most states. It has far more people with college degrees than the average state.
New Jersey has not been well-known as a progressive enclave because the Republican Party has remained competitive while continuously losing ground. It often appears possible that the Republican Party may win this office or that one held by Democrats, but they rarely do.
If Clinton wins New Jersey by a landslide, her campaign can be said to be well on track. A close race here would be one more sign that machine politics is fading, and that nearness to New York is of limited help. My guess is that an Obama victory here would likely signal the inevitability of his Presidential nomination.